New Report Available: Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q2 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Apr 24 2013

Freight Sector To Benefit From Limited Recovery

While BMI sees an export-led recovery making itself felt in 2013, with Taiwan benefiting from renewed external demand for semi-conductors, plastics, metals and machinery, we have reservations about the strength and sustainability of the upturn. This has led us to hold to our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 3.0% for the year, bearing in mind concerns over the strength of the mainland China recovery, and over domestic issues such as inefficiencies in the banking and financial sector, and rigidities in the labour market. This year's growth will follow on from a difficult 2012 when we estimate GDP grew by only 0.9%. Prompted by our reassessment of Taiwan's investment and export prospects, we have lowered our average annual growth forecasts for the period running from 2014 to 2022, from 4.7% down to 3.9%.

Full Report Details at

We continue to expect an upturn in 2013 port activity levels, but this will be in the low single percentage digits. Broadly speaking Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remains the most resilient. Keelung, the country's second-largest port, will recover a little more weakly from a difficult 2012. Airfreight, rail, and road haulage will all experience recovery in 2013, but it will be only in the 1.0% to 2.5% range.

Headline Industry Data

* 2013 airfreight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.2% to 1.164mn tonnes.
* 2013 rail freight is forecast to edge up by 1.1% to 14.051mn tonnes.
* Maintaining its record of year-on-year growth, 2013 road freight is forecast to grow by 2.2% to 664.427mn tonnes.
* 2013 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 1.5% to 123.311mn tonnes, over the mid-term to 2017 we project an annual average increase of 1.6%.
* Port of Keelung will see tonnage recovering by 1.3% in 2013 to 70.319mn tonnes, with container traffic up by 1.3% to 1.627mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* 2013 total trade is forecast to rise by 3.4% in real terms, compared to 1.95% contraction in the preceding year.

Key Industry Trends

IATA Says Taipei Is Benefitting From Regional Airfreight Recovery - While the IATA says the global airfreight market is merely 'stabilising' in early 2013, the international aviation body is sounding a more optimistic note for Asia and Taiwan's air hub at Taipei. Adjusting for the effect of Chinese New Year, it is estimated that the region's carriers saw demand growth of about 3.0% in January. The region's airlines have captured about 60% of the growth in freight tonne kilometre (FTK) volumes seen in January compared to October. This has been led by the acceleration in the Chinese economy and with export-dependent economies like South Korea and Taiwan experiencing stronger global demand.

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