Market Report, "Egypt Autos Report Q3 2014", published

Conditions for Egypt's new vehicle market are much improved in 2014. With the political situation more stable and inflation heading lower, we are revising our forecast for passenger car sales upwards to growth of 25.0%. Although we had already expected a better year in 2014, this is a significant revision from our previous forecast of 3% growth, made when the government was in a state of flux and policy was unclear.

Sales for Q114 have borne out this optimism, with total light vehicle sales up 23.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), with sales for March alone achieving 29.0% y-o-y growth. We expect base effects from 2013 to have even more impact in the coming months, as sales were particularly hard hit in the summer months of 2013, when unrest forced the temporary closure of some vehicle plants. As such we think growth will head higher over the remainder of the year.

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There is also positive news in the motorcycle segment, where the proposed ban on imports of two- and three-wheelers has been withdrawn. In addition to GB Auto, which assembles motorcycles under contract, the news will also benefit Indian automaker Bajaj Auto, which is one of the largest exporters of two- and three-wheelers to the Egyptian market.

Brand sales for Q114 are also positive, showing that while our view that low-cost brands could capitalise on the weak pound has played out, with Geely claiming the country's fourth-best selling model in the quarter, consumers are still willing to spend on bigger models. According to the Egyptian Association of Car Manufacturers (AMID), the best-selling model in Q114 was the Hyundai Verna sedan, followed by the Chevrolet TFR single cab pick-up, which is also a good sign for business confidence. Geely's claim on fourth place with the Emgrand EC7, however, also shows the benefits of domestic production, having started assembly of the model through GB Auto in October 2012.

The Egypt Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Egypt Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Egypt.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Egyptian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

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