New Market Research Report: Argentina Autos Report Q1 2015

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Dec 01 2014

Vehicle sales in Argentina declined 34.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first nine months of 2014, to 472,044 units. BMI has become increasingly bearish on the outlook for the Argentine autos sector in 2014 on the back of a devaluation of the peso in January, the likelihood of further weakness in the unit going forward, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and new taxes on autos imports.

High inflation, slowing real wage growth, and increasing unemployment levels are likely to keep private consumption subdued in 2014 and 2015, weighing on consumers' appetite for big ticket purchases. While high base effects from strong sales growth in 2013 will worsen the y-o-y growth rate in 2014, the decline in sales and production will slow in 2015 as they fall from a lower base. Accordingly, we forecast a bearish 28.6% decline in total vehicle sales over 2014, followed by a further 4.2% decline in 2015.

We caution that, if inflation continues to escalate, Argentine consumers may start to purchase vehicles as a store against inflation, as we have seen in Venezuela. While this is not our current core view, this would serve to drive sales, but would lead to a huge increase in used car prices and further exacerbate inflation problems.

Full Report Details at

Vehicle production in Argentina contracted 24.2% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 461,291 units, on the back of sustained declines in the domestic and export markets. BMI expects these dynamics to continue, and believes that this will weigh on output volumes over the year. Consequently we are forecasting a 22.9% decline in 2014 followed by a further fall of 6.3% in 2015.

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Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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