New Market Research Report: Mexico Autos Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Sep 23 2013

Light vehicle sales in Mexico increased by 9.3% y-o-y in 7M13, to 588,632 units. BMI forecasts passenger car sales to increase by 6.6% and LCV sales to increase by 8.0% in 2013. We believe that total private consumption in Mexico will increase in the latter part of the year, informing our broadly positive outlook, although we expect the light vehicle sales growth rate to moderate somewhat towards the end of 2013, as the marked increases seen in Q412 are unlikely to be replicated.

Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined by 2.3% y-o-y, to 7,843 units, over H113, the latest data available at the time of writing. This follows a 13.1% y-o-y decline in this segment in June, which we do not expect to continue over the year. Indeed, we forecast a 2.0% increase in 2013, predicated on our moderately bullish outlook for Mexico's manufacturing and construction sectors.

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Due to the small size of the market, small volume declines can have a relatively substantial effect on growth rates, and therefore cannot assumed to be signs of sustained weakness. We believe that some pent-up demand from several years of declining sales will help buoy the market over the year.

Light vehicle production in Mexico dipped by 1.4% y-o-y in July, to 234,757 units. Over the first seven months of the year, output increased by 4.1% y-o-y, to 1,722,919 units. This decline in production is due to a sharp drop-off in export volumes in July; we expect export volumes to decline somewhat over the remainder of the year, although not at the sharp rate seen in July.

BMI holds a bullish view on the Mexican autos market's fundamental dynamics, as identified below, and believe that these factors should continue to attract autos investment into the country. However, due to our weak export growth outlook, we forecast passenger car production to grow by 6%. We expect light commercial vehicle (LCV) production to register 4.7% growth over the year.

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