New Report Available: Iran Shipping Report Q3 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Jul 12 2013

We forecast that Iran will endure another year of recession in 2013, with real GDP set to undergo a contraction of 2.3% following our 2012 estimate of a 3.4% contraction. Container shipping is set to take another hit as more shipping lines have ceased calling at the country, and we forecast another year of large throughput drops at Bandar Abbas. The decline will not be as great as we estimate in 2012 - 18.0% rather than 29.0% - but this is in large part down to base effects; the outlook for the sector is grim indeed.

Headline Industry Data

* 2013 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to decline by 18.0% before returning to growth in 2014.
* 2017 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 1.99mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
* 2013 total trade is forecast to endure a contraction of 16.5%.

Key Industry Trends

Transit Trade Increasingly Important For Empty Coffers: BMI believes that transit trade and port development will become increasingly important to Iran in the coming years as a source of foreign income, given the increasingly stringent sanctions being placed upon the country as a result of its alleged nuclear weapons development programme. Investment by India in a port at Chabahar is the latest instance of this.

Full Report Details at

Shahid Rajaie Port To Expand Cotton Capacity: The Iranian Port of Shahid Rajaie, or Bandar Abbas, is set to become the biggest cotton transit terminal for Central Asia, following the establishment of a private sector loading and offloading unit. The authorities have completed 3km of railroads and work on the remaining 3km is 40% complete, according to Ali Estiri, the head of the Ports and Shipping Office in Hormuzgan province.

Noshahr Port's Capacity To Increase To 5mn Tons: The annual capacity of the Iranian port of Noshahr is expected to rise to 5mn tons in 2014 following the completion of infrastructural projects. The announcement was made by the director general of the Noshahr, Seyed Nabi Seydpour, in a meeting to devise solutions for the present bottlenecks at the port.

Key Risks To Outlook

The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear energy development programme - which the Iranians insist is not related to the development of weapons - elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. However, it is uncertain how much longer Iran can continue in the current manner given its dire economic outlook and were a reversal to be made - and sanctions lifted - this could create risk to our economic and port throughput forecasts.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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