New market study, "Russia Autos Report Q4 2014", has been published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Nov 07 2014

This quarter, BMI has revised down its forecasts for the Russian auto sector. We now anticipate a 9% drop in the passenger car segment, from a 5% decline previously, and a 9.4% decline in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, from 5.4% previously. Accordingly, we expect total light vehicle sales to decline 9.0% in 2014.

Our decision to revise down our forecasts comes against a backdrop of a worsening domestic political and economic situation. On the political side, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has hit consumer confidence and led to the imposition of economic sanctions by Western nations. This in turn has fed into what was already a fairly bleak economic outlook, with ongoing weakness in private consumption of particular concern to the autos sector.

Full Report Details at

Over H114, light vehicle sales declined by 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 1,229,839 units. Looking at July 2014 monthly sales data, Russia saw a 23% annual decline in new vehicle sales, to just 180,767 units, according to data released by the Association of European Businesses (AEB). Leading Russian car manufacturer AvtoVAZ registered a 25% decrease in sales of its Lada cars, to 28,014 vehicles, over the month.

Looking forward, BMI expects to see further erosion in private consumption throughout 2014 as inflation remains elevated, the currency weakens further, unemployment creeps upward, real wages dip, and access to credit slows. These dynamics have weighed on sales over the year to date, as consumers remain reticent over big-ticket purchases such as new cars. Moreover, we expect to see a more pronounced deceleration in private sector spending in the second half of the year, as capital outflows and political uncertainty weigh on fixed investment while elevated inflation erodes consumer purchasing power. These dynamics have informed our bearish light vehicle sales forecast revision for the year. Beyond the current year, BMI remains downbeat, targeting further falls in new vehicle sales over 2015, before...

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

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