United Kingdom Autos Report Q2 2013 - New Report Available

In 2012, BMI estimates that passenger car sales increased 5.3% in 2012. Consumer confidence increased moderately over the year, although we believe it remained relatively subdued. This partly drove the rise in passenger car sales, but we believe that the main causes were large pent-up demand in the market and heavy discounting by auto companies.

In 2013, we forecast passenger car sales to increase 4.2% on the back of modest improvements in private consumption, price cuts from car sellers and pent-up demand.

In 2012, BMI estimates that light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales declined 7.9%. Business sentiment and manufacturing activity in the country remain relatively weak, and this has dampened LCV sales over the year. In 2013, we forecast a decline of 2% in this segment on the back of a continuation of this relatively bearish outlook.

BMI maintains a relatively bullish forecast for vehicle production in the UK, particularly compared with output levels in many other European countries. This view has been informed by our positive outlook for the domestic passenger car segment and our expectation of a slowdown in the decline in the European passenger car segment. We expect commercial vehicle production to decline over the year, however, but this constitutes a relatively small proportion of total vehicle output.

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BMI believes that the UK has a fairly attractive business environment owing to the ease of doing business, strong economic and political institutions, proximity to the rest of Europe and openness to foreign capital. The labour market is also fairly flexible and property rights strongly enforced. As the UK continues to turn its focus towards rebalancing its economy from services to manufacturing, BMI believes that the importance of the automotive industry in this regard cannot be ignored.

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