"Japan Shipping Report Q1 2015" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Jan 30 2015

Ports To Do Moderately Well In 2015, Despite Low GDP Growth

In terms of the shipping picture in Japan, 2015 will see the port of Nagoya leading the way with tonnage growth of 3.0% and containers handled growing by 2.8%, both numbers significantly ahead of domestic GDP. Among the other seaports, Tokyo will also fare well, with tonnage growth of 2.0% and box handling up by 3.8%. The improvement will come despite a slight slowdown in foreign trade growth, to 4.1% in 2015 after an estimated 4.7% in the preceding year.

BMI is bearish on Japan's economic prospects in 2015, with aggressively below-consensus projections for the economy. While some predict 3.0% GDP growth our forecast is for expansion of only 0.8%, down on an estimated 0.9% in 2014. We attribute this disappointing outlook to the steep fall of the Yen versus the currencies of Japan's main trading partners and the sales tax hike in April 2014. GDP fell quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214 and Q314, pushing the economy into technical recession. We continue to believe the government's quantitative easing (QE) efforts are counter productive, boosting inflation but not lifting purchasing power by consumers. Similarly, a weaker yen is good for exporters but not for domestic purchasing power. The key problem is that real wages continue to decline.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/944739_japan_shipping_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=303

Headline Industry Data

* 2015 port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 3.0% to reach 219.185mn tonnes, up from 2014's estimated 2.1% growth rate. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 2.8% to 2.857mn twenty-foot equivalents (TEUs), up from estimated 2.6% growth in the preceding year.
* The port of Tokyo will remain Japan's largest container terminal, with box traffic gaining 3.8% to 4.565mn TEUs in 2015, up from estimated 1.0% growth in 2014.
* The port of Yokohama will see a 2.7% tonnage growth to 124.78mn tonnes in 2015, and 1.5% container growth to 2.966mn TEUs.
* 2015 total trade growth forecast to expand by 4.1% in real terms. Import growth at 4.2% will...

The Japan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Japan.

BMI's Japan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Japan.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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