Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q4 2014 - New Market Research Report

Core Views:

* Early elections in October offer the opportunity to break Bulgaria's legislative deadlock and bolster commitment to wider European integration.
* We see only limited threat to the stability of the Bulgarian financial system following recent runs on two of the country's largest domestically-owned banks.
* Economic growth in Bulgaria will gradually accelerate over the coming years as higher household consumption and rising fixed investment keep the nascent recovery on track.

Major Forecast Changes:

* We have revised our current account forecast for Bulgaria, expecting a narrowing of the surplus to 0.9% of GDP in 2014, from a previous forecast of 1.4%.

Key Risk To Outlook:

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* Coalition infighting and a divided legislature could mean prolonged political instability even after the October 5 election.
* Deflation pressures threaten to jeopardise a nascent recovery in domestic demand.
* Slowing manufacturing activity in the eurozone core economies could hurt goods exports and lead to a more rapid narrowing of the current account surplus.

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bulgaria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Bulgaria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Bulgaria's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Bulgaria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bulgaria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Bulgaria economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Bulgaria through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

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