Iraq Business Forecast Report Q4 2013 - New Market Study Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Oct 01 2013

Core Views

Despite the formation of a government in December 2010, we expect political progress to remain slow and stability fragile. A broken power-sharing agreement and persistent sectarian tensions present key risks.

The Iraqi economy will be among the fastest growing in the world over the coming five years, driven by an aggressive increase in oil production and the start of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our forecasts for real GDP growth, and project the economy to expand 10.5% and 10.7% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, compared to our previous forecast of 11.2% in 2013 and 14.5% in 2014. This largely result from BMI's Oil & Gas research team's more conservative outlook on oil exports, resulting from persisting security risks and an outdated infrastructure, coupled with low exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. With political instability increasing, risks to the economic outlook remain to the downside

Full Report Details at

Key Risk To Outlook

Attacks on oil infrastructure due to terrorism or acts of political protest present downside risks to our growth forecasts.

A breakdown of the coalition government could lead to a period of pronounced instability and slower growth.

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