Market Report, "Ireland Business Forecast Report Q1 2014", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Sun Nov 10 2013

Although Ireland will become the first eurozone country to successfully exit its EU/IMF bailout in 2013, the government's fiscal consolidation programme will come under increasing pressure from the electorate and from splits within the ruling Fine Gael-Labour coalition in 2014. The recent rejection of a government proposal to abolish the Seanad (Upper House) via a referendum will damage the coalition's authority, with Prime Minister Enda Kenny having been a key supporter of the proposal.

Ireland's economic recovery will gather momentum in 2014, driven by the continued improvement in the export outlook and recovering private consumption. We forecast real GDP to grow by an aboveconsensus 2.1% in 2014, but note that the government's ongoing fiscal consolidation programme and weak fixed capital formation will prevent a more significant jump in headline growth over the next few years.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our real GDP forecast for Ireland to 0.6% in 2013, from 0.8% previously, against the backdrop of a slower-thananticipated recovery in private consumption in the first eight months of 2013.

Key Risks To Outlook

With Ireland's economic recovery heavily dependent on improving demand from its main trading partners, the potential for a slowerthan- expected economic recovery in the US or the eurozone provides a key downside risk to our outlook for real GDP growth. In such a scenario, we would look to downgrade our forecasts for real GDP growth in 2014 and 2015, cautioning that a collapse in external demand would weigh heavily on the country's ability to continue meeting its fiscal obligations (due to lower tax revenues).

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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