Market Report, "Sudan and South Sudan Business Forecast Report Q3 2014", published

While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities were already ongoing in both countries, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for both countries, significantly curtailing growth and deteriorating the external accounts.

Major Forecast Changes

We have again downgraded our forecast for South Sudan's growth in 2014, from 10.6% to 2.3%, owing to the disruptions associated with the conflict and the dimming prospect of a speedy resolution.

We have upgraded our forecasts for Sudan's current account deficit due to the latest data released by the country's central bank and an improving outlook for some exports, and now expect the 2014 shortfall to equal 7.3% of GDP, compared to our earlier estimates of 9.9%.

Key Risks To Outlook

Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries. The price of oil represents another important risk to our forecasts, both positive and negative, given both countries are among Africa's top crude producers.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/807670_sudan_and_south_sudan_business_forecast_report_q3.aspx?afid=303

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