Mozambique Business Forecast Report Q3 2014 - New Market Research Report

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Jun 10 2014

Core Views:

* In the absence of new data, the trajectory of Mozambique's foreign exchange reserves suggests that the external accounts remain in a healthy state. We retain our view that Mozambique will continue to post large current account deficits until 2020 when natural gas production is set to begin in earnest. In the meantime, successive annual shortfalls will be covered by capital and financial account inflows.
* Benign inflation and a strong economic growth outlook lead us to believe that the Mozambican authorities will keep the policy rate at 8.25% for the remainder of 2014. The risks to this view are balanced. The authorities are likely hike rates if the metical weakens significantly against the South African rand or cut rates if economic growth comes in lower than expected.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes:

* We have increased our 2014 headline growth forecast to 7.2% from 6.9% as natural resource sectors appear to be picking up some of the slack created by a relatively subdued consumer sector. We continue to forecast that growth will increase towards double digits in the years leading up to the onset of gas production in 2020.

Key Risks To Outlook:

* Mozambique is vulnerable to adverse weather specifically too much or too little rain and this will continue to pose a risk to the agriculturally-based economy.
* The security situation poses a major threat to economic growth, the external accounts and government revenue as a significant deterioration would likely lead to reduced foreign investment inflows.
* A failure to address deficient infrastructure is the most pressing risk to our upbeat view on the Mozambican economy. Transport infrastructure in particular is currently inadequate to get Mozambique's natural riches to international markets. Failure to address this would negatively impact our expectation that exports will be a major driver of growth over the coming years.

The Mozambique Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Mozambique and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Mozambique's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of The Mozambique's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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