New Market Report: Russia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Sep 02 2014


Core Views

* The fallout from the Ukraine crisis has worsened the domestic demand outlook in Russia, and we expect real GDP growth to slow to 0.6% y-o-y in 2014, from 1.3% in 2013. With the government taking steps towards fiscal consolidation, net exports will be the main driver of growth in 2014-2015.
* Although inflation spiked to 7.8% y-o-y in June, up from 6.1% y-o-y in January, we reiterate our view that inflation will subside by year-end. Subsiding inflationary pressures will allow the Central Bank of Russia to cut the main policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% in Q115.
* Rouble weakness will benefit Russia's public finances in 2014-2015, ensuring Russia's budget deficit will remain modest over this time frame. In addition, the government has recently announced plans aimed at fiscal consolidation, which we believe are credible, further bolstering Russia's fiscal accounts outlook over this forecast period.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/871632_russia_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=303

Major Forecast Changes

* We have recently revised down our forecast for real GDP growth in Russia for 2014 and 2015 as the fallout from the Ukraine crisis has dampened the outlook for domestic demand to a greater degree than we had previously anticipated. We expect real GDP growth to slow to 0.6% y-o-y in 2014, from 1.3% in 2013. With the government taking steps towards fiscal consolidation, net exports will be the main driver of growth in 2014-2015.
* Recent developments in Russia have prompted us to slightly modify our forecast for the monetary policy trajectory this year - whereas before we expected a 25 basis points (bps) cut to the Central Bank of Russia's benchmark interest rate by year-end, now this view is likely to materialise in Q115. The CBR governorship appears to be more politically independent and inflation expectations more pronounced than we previously expected.

Risk To Outlook

The retaliatory food export bans imposed by Russia on trade partners in the EU and the US, among others, have presented an upside risk to our inflation and...

The Russia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Russia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Russia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Russia's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

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