New Market Report: Ukraine Real Estate Report Q1 2015

With no end in sight for the political and economic crisis that shook Ukraine in 2014, we forecast the commercial real estate sector to continue to suffer . Economic and political uncertainty remain a decisive obstacle for investors to enter the market while growth is contracting or stagnating.

As the political crisis will remain finely balanced between a renewed ceasefire and escalation in 2015 Ukraine is attempting to emerge from the economic depression that have seen rental prices tumble in all three sub-sector in BMI's Real Estate report - office, retail and industrial. Industrial has the lowest rental rates of the three, with previously reported industrial cooperation between Ukraine and Russia being highly unlikely due to the current circumstances. The proposed free-trade agreement with the EU from September 16 2014 could become critical for any future economic recovery. The agreement will however only become effective in January 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, demand for commercial real estate is expected to remain low, with further decreases expected. This comes as our current estimates for the Ukrainian economy to contract by 5.3% in 2014 and 5.2% in 2015.

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With some projects in the retail and office sector having been commissioned earlier in 2014, vacancy rates in both sectors are currently rising, with record highs observed for example in Kiev's office sector, amounting to an estimated 22.6%. As private spending plummets, real wages growth decreases for the first time in years and unemployment rates are on the rise; meanwhile the retail sector, which previously resisted the global financial crisis better than the other two sectors, has postponed the commissioning of some major projects after demand shrank decisively in H114. General falling manufacturing levels and worsened trade conditions due to the extreme currency devaluation have also caused demand for industrial property space to stagnate further. General price levels in all...

The Ukraine Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's Ukraine Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Ukraine.

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