New Market Research Report: Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Oct 08 2014

Core Views:

* We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) to accelerate to 2.6% in 2014 and 3.0% in 2015, up from 1.6% growth in 2013. We expect recent tax reforms will incentivise greater investment into the twin islands' key energy sector, while low interest rates will continue to spur growth in consumer lending, bolstering private consumption.
* Elevated public spending in advance of national elections in May 2015 will drive a widening of T&T's budget deficit in 2014. Beginning in H215, stronger revenues on the back of accelerating real GDP growth will lead the shortfall to begin to narrow.
* T&T's current account balance will remain in surplus in the coming years, driven by improving export performance in the energy sector. Recent tax reform will also continue to encourage an uptick in private foreign direct investment.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes:

* We have revised our 2014 average exchange rate forecast to TTD6.373/USD, from TTD6.430/USD previously. The unit has strengthened in recent months, reversing its Q114 losses, likely bolstered by stronger goods exports as energy sector production has picked up. However, we believe that further appreciation will be limited, as energy prices will be tempered in the months ahead and the central bank will look to support export competitiveness.

Key Risks To Outlook

* Weaker hydrocarbons production and exports than we anticipate in the coming months could weigh on headline real GDP growth and see the current account shortfall increase less than we anticipate. Moreover, further weakness in energy exports could feed through to more substantial depreciation in the Trinidad & Tobago dollar than we anticipate this year.

The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Trinidad & Tobago and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* ContextualiseThe Trinidad & Tobago's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

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