New Market Study Published: Estonia Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed May 22 2013

We anticipate Estonia's economic recovery to persevere in 2013 driven primarily by consumer and investment spending. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth, as weak external demand hinders export growth.

We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory. Conservative expenditure targets and continued economic growth, which will boost revenues and help shrink the deficit as a proportion of GDP, will be key to the narrowing shortfall. Public debt is set to increase on the back of eurozone bailout fund contributions. However, Estonia's debt burden will remain well below other EU member states.

Popular support for Estonia's ruling Reform Party, in power since 2007, has fallen significantly and is unlikely to regain previous highs. While the pro-Russian Centre Party will remain popular among the ethnic-Russian electorate, we see little scope for its inclusion in a potential re-shuffle of the coalition given deep ethnic political divides.

Full Report Details at

Major Forecast Changes

A sharp rise in the trade deficit in 2012 sent the current account into deficit earlier than we anticipated. As a result, we have adjusted our forecast to reflect our view that the current account deficit will now gradually widen over the medium term, reaching 1.6% of GDP in 2013 before peaking at 5.3% 2017.

Risks To Outlook

As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains highly exposed to the sovereign debt crisis, an intensification of which would have a deleterious impact on Estonia's macroeconomic outlook.

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