New Market Study Published: Poland Retail Report Q2 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri May 23 2014

We have made a modest upward revision to our forecast for Polish household expenditure over our five-year forecast period to 2018. In local currency terms, we expect household spending to increase by 30.5%, up from our forecast of 29.9% last quarter. This comes on the back of our upward revision to Polish economic growth in 2014. We had previously been forecasting real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2014. However, on the back of an ongoing export recovery, which has filtered through into marked improvements to the country's labour market, we are now forecasting Polish economic growth of 2.9%. Our robust, if unspectacular, growth forecast out to 2018, will ensure that Poland continues to attract retail investment and remains a competitive and dynamic market.

Full Report Details at

BMI Forecasts:

* We have modestly revised up our total household expenditure forecast out to 2018. We are now forecasting spending growth of 30.5%, from our previous forecast of 29.9% last quarter.
* The highest growth retail category within the sector will remain furnishing and homeware spending. As well as broader macroeconomic factors, growth in this sector will be aided by strong forecast growth in household numbers as the make-up of the traditional Polish household evolves.
* While growth in furnishings and homeware will be strongest, we expect food and non-alcoholic beverages to continue to account for the highest percentage of household spending at around 20%. We do not expect this to change dramatically over our current forecast period.
* Our upward revision to household spending comes on the back of an upward revision to our Polish real GDP forecasts. We were previously forecasting 2014 real GDP growth of 2.6% and have upwardly revised this to 2.9%.
* Having stood at just 0.4% in 2013, Polish private consumption growth should accelerate this year, climbing to around 2%.
* Poland remains in fourth place in BMI's Retail Risk/Reward Ratings for the Central and Eastern European region. While weighed down slightly in terms of opportunity, owing to the size of the market, it performs well in terms of risk, thanks largely to well developed physical infrastructure.

Recent Developments Include:

Among the key developments in the Polish retail sector this quarter has been the announcement by grocery retail market leader Jeronimo Martins that it would open 400 new stores in 2014. As well as organic expansion via new store openings, the company is also thought to be considering acquisitions in order to accelerate its expansion into smaller and mid-sized towns. The acquisition of the network of local firm MarcPol is thought to be under consideration. Such a move would accelerate consolidation in what is currently a crowded and competitive grocery retail sector.

Risks To Outlook

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