Nigeria Country Risk Report Q2 2015 - New Study Released

Core Views

* Presidential elections on February 14 will be the most closely fought since Nigeria's return to democracy in 1999. While a victory for incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and his ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) is the most likely outcome, victory is not assured. Regardless of outcome, we expect little major deviation in policy trajectory given the personality-based nature of Nigerian politics.
* Currency concerns will be the central issue for the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2015. Following aggressive tightening of monetary policy in November, we believe that further tightening measures will be necessary to anchor inflation expectations and reassure jittery markets.
* The economic outlook for Nigeria has deteriorated. While we maintain our broad view that falling oil prices will not have a major impact on headline GDP growth given the predominance of the non-oil sector, some pass through now seems inevitable.
* The new era of lower oil prices raises serious questions over Nigeria's fiscal sustainability. Substantive and politically-unpalatable spending cuts will be needed if the country is to prevent a fiscal crisis unfolding over the next few years.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951905_nigeria_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=303

Major Forecast Changes

* We have made substantive changes to our macroeconomic forecasts for Nigeria in the wake of falling oil prices.

Key Risks To Outlook

* The volatility of oil prices poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts, which, if disrupted, could harm macroeconomic stability.
* While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.
* The approach of the 2015 elections will see political risk remain elevated and could result in lower growth than we currently predict if there is a major political event.
* Power sector reforms are crucial for long-term productivity gains. If these are slowed or stalled, this would lead to lower long-term...

The Nigeria Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Nigeria. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Nigeria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Nigeria's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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