United Kingdom Business Forecast Report Q3 2014 - New Study Released

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu May 22 2014


While the rest of the eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the French economy continues to lag behind the region. While the improving regional economic outlook may provide some limited upside potential, this might not be sufficient to drive a recovery in French manufacturing unless the country first addresses its outstanding competitiveness issues.

While we are likely to see a gradual increase in positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, Hollande is unlikely to become an ambitious reformer of the French model. While we expect some reformers will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party and core support base, and resistance from the proliferation of special interest groups which will make unilateral reform a troublesome and compromised process.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/807652_united_kingdom_business_forecast_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=303

We expect pressures on the government to engage in more concerted fiscal consolidation to mount over the coming quarters, particularly as lower growth begins to translate into lower government revenues. While France has thus far not fallen prey to the bond vigilantes like the peripheral countries of the eurozone, the country nonetheless has one of the largest public sector debt piles in Europe and remains susceptible to contagion effects.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our debt forecasts, and now expect the government debt load to reach 100% of GDP by 2018 due to a lack of political willpower to rein in the fiscal deficit combined with weak growth.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Fiscal Forecast: The possibility of a further intensification of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the potential need for state-led capital injections in the domestic banking sector keeps the risks to our fiscal deficits over the medium term firmly to the downside.

Rising Debt Loads Could Way On Growth: We see continued hazards to the fiscal outlook on the horizon, including the potential for interest rate shocks, further fiscal slippage and a stagnant growth environment, and caution that the next 24 months will be extremely important in determining France's long-run debt trajectory.

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