"Colombia Country Risk Report Q2 2015" Published

Core Views:

* We believe that Colombia's economy will benefit from solid private consumption in the coming years. That said, with the oil sector set for slower growth as global crude prices plunge, this will prompt larger net exports deficits and weigh on gross fixed capital formation, such that we anticipate slower growth over the next decade than in the last.
* Hydrocarbon sector weakness will also weigh on Colombia's balance of payment position. Indeed, faltering oil prices and production will temper investment into Colombia and cool export growth. Meanwhile, slower oil production growth combined with increasing pressure to spend on social programmes will feed through to fiscal slippage toward the latter half of our 10-year forecast period. While the country is well positioned to withstand the storm, with low external debt and a sizeable stock of foreign reserves, the potential for deterioration in the country's macroeconomic buffers will temper investor perception of Colombia's sovereign creditworthiness.
* We expect the government and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia will reach a peace accord in the coming quarters. However, given the splintered nature of the left-wing insurgent group, such a deal will only slowly improve the security environment.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/951886_colombia_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=303

Major Forecast Changes:

We have tempered our optimism on Colombia's growth outlook. Our increasingly cautious view toward the country's oil sector will feed through to the economy in a number of ways:

* We are now forecasting 3.9% average real GDP growth between 2015 and 2024, further revised down from our previous 4.2% forecast. This change reflects our expectation that net exports will become a growing burden on headline growth and that gross fixed capital formation, while benefitting from robust infrastructure expansion, will struggle in the face of sluggish oil output growth.
* We have revised down our fiscal deficit projections as the continued plunge in oil prices will weigh on Colombia's budget...

The Colombia Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Colombia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Colombia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Colombia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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