"Japan Real Estate Report Q4 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

We continue to believe that although the housing sector is still outperforming, commercial real estate is also set to experience strong growth in the long term. Evidence of this can be found in the large volume of investment into the commercial real estate sectors. We believe this is because until a large number of new developments are completed, little change is expected in the supply and demand ratios with regards to available rental space. Over the long term, we anticipate higher leasing income, lower vacancy rates, higher sales and the opening of new office properties.

Japan's commercial real estate investment saw a sharp rise of 78% y-o-y in Q213 as the government's radical reflating policies gained traction. Off of the back of this, US-based real estate services company Jones Lang LaSalle identified Japan as the most thriving commercial property market in Asia as demand for offices, warehouses, retailers and apartment blocks have reached US$10.2bn of investment in Q213. We believe investor confidence has been boosted by improving macroeconomic indicators in Japan following the government's stimulatory measures.

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Moreover, the Japanese real estate investment trust (REIT) market is becoming increasingly lucrative and has attracted a large number of investors in recent months. Indeed the REITs have enjoyed unprecedented level of investor interest and activity during the first half of the year. During the first four months of 2013, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) REIT index gained 43.5%, outpacing a 35.5% rise in the broader index.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was among those buying into the listed property investments. BMI cautions, however, that with the REITs continuing to significantly outperform the broader real estate sector, this joy is unlikely to last over the medium to long-term. It is our view that this trend may well strengthen throughout the remainder of 2013. Risks in European real estate remain, while Tokyo's market is slowly rebalancing. Furthermore, the government is carrying out an aggressive monetary easing policy, allowing the Japanese yen to depreciate significantly. This makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase Japanese real estate assets. Lastly, Japanese banks are relatively liquid and could show an increasing appetite towards real estate lending. Domestic capital is also being mobilised by Goldman Sachs which in September 2012, launched a JPY30bn real estate investment trust (REIT) backed by Japanese pension funds.

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