New Market Study Published: Turkey Tourism Report Q2 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri May 17 2013

This quarter BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors.

We believe that Turkey offers a great deal of investment potential to large tourist industries - particularly global hotel groups - as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time.

In 2012, a total of 31,782,832 tourists visited Turkey, representing growth of 1.04%, according to BMI estimates. Looking forward, we remain very positive about the outlook for Turkish tourism between 2013 and 2017, although there is always a risk that sentiment towards the local tourist industry could be dented by potential terrorist attacks or other domestic security issues.

For 2013, BMI is predicting an increase of 3.5% in total tourist arrivals. The outlook for foreign visitors over the forecast period will remain strongly influenced by real GDP growth in the eurozone - one of the key source regions for tourists. At the present time, BMI is forecasting flat growth for the eurozone in 2013, rising to 1.2% in 2014. Limited economic growth in two major source markets, the UK and Germany, is also expected to constrain inbound tourism over the short term.

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However, Turkey also receives a significant amount of inbound tourism from the faster-growing CEE region and, in particular, Russia. Much of the CEE region is currently booming and various tourist industries, particularly the large global hotel chains, are looking towards the CEE region now as they see it as a potentially lucrative market. A large part of this growth will be seen in intra-CEE tourism, and Turkey's future tourism arrivals will reflect this. Higher disposable incomes from Russia and other former states of the Soviet Union should also lead to increased outbound tourism demand for CEE countries such as Turkey over the medium term.

Encouragingly for the longer-term development of the local tourism industry, there is a good deal of diversification in the Top 10 source markets for inbound tourism to Turkey. Four of the Top 10 countries are from Western Europe (Germany, UK. Netherlands and France); three are from Eastern Europe (Russia, Bulgaria and Georgia); two are from the Middle East (Syria and Iran) and one from North America (the USA).

Over the forecast period to 2017, BMI is forecasting that some 600 hotels and other accommodation establishments will open in Turkey, reflecting the higher visitor numbers that we expect over the coming years. This will equate to some 16,180 extra rooms. The country is currently perceived as offering extremely attractive investment opportunities for hotel groups and other tourist-related industries, largely due to rising domestic tourism and regional tourism, supported by an increase in higher disposable incomes.

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