"Kenya Tourism Report Q4 2013" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Sep 19 2013

Over the last quarter, BMI has become more negative on the outlook for Kenyan tourism. Arrivals through the country's two main airports reportedly fell every month from February to May 2013, with the near-term forecast for tourist arrivals now further clouded by the August 2013 fire that devastated a large part of Nairobi's main airport.we believe there is significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, but flag up the fact that the nation still needs to invest heavily to improve infrastructure, safety and service standards across the industry.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/673296_kenya_tourism_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=303

Over the first half of 2013, arrivals were depressed by uncertainty ahead of March 2013's presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as various foreign travel advisories advising against travel to Kenya, against a backdrop of potential terrorist attacks from the al-Shabaab militant group or other extremists. Against this backdrop, arrivals through Kenya's two main airports, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) and Moi International Airport (MIA), reportedly fell each month over the February-May 2013 period, according to figures from the Kenyan Bureau of National Statistics as cited by The East African newspaper. Although June arrivals through JKIA and MIA then showed a welcome month-on-month (m-o-m) increase, of 27%, in June, the devastating fire that destroyed a large part of Nairobi's main Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) in early August 2013 could now have a significant short-term impact on tourist arrivals over the remainder of the current year.

Speaking shortly after the fire, the managing director of Serena Hotels, Mahmud Jan Mohamed, said that the fire was the last thing the local tourism industry needed at the present time, but added that it was still early to know what the full impact of this fire on tourist arrival numbers would be. BMI would share this view. However, given the already-poor start to the year and the compounding effect of this recent fire on future arrivals over the coming months, we believe it prudent to revise downwards our 2013 tourist arrivals forecast slightly, to growth of 1.5%, from 3% previously. We will of course monitor the situation on the ground to see if any further revisions are necessary.

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