Hungary Power Report Q4 2013 - New Market Research Report

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

[UKPRwire, Fri Oct 25 2013] The Hungarian power sector is set to remain a net energy importer over our forecast period, as consumption continues to exceed generation capacity. The government, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has made a number of policy announcements concerning improving the country's generation capabilities; however, we are yet to see any concrete plan in place to bring domestic supply up to the level of demand. The announcement that the Paks nuclear power plant (Hungary's sole nuclear generator) reactors will undergo refurbishment has alleviated some of the concerns surrounding the future of nuclear power in the country. However, this will not improve generation capacity enough to shift the country to being a net electricity exporter, rather than importer, during our forecast period.

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Natural gas generation is set to continue as the major growth driver in the country's power sector over the period to 2022. This is in spite of the drive for an increase in generating capacity for renewables, in an effort to shift away from costly Russian gas imports.

Key trends and developments in the Hungarian electricity market:

* Hungarian total power generation is set to expand at 0.9% per annum across the period 2014-2022. We also forecast consumption to tick up across the forecast period, at an average rate of 1.3% per annum over the same period. This is a sign of the developed nature of Hungary's power sector, but also raises the probability that the country will continue to be a net importer of energy.
* Alstom has been awarded the refurbishment contract to retrofit the nine reactors at the Paks nuclear plant. The contract is worth EUR5.1mn and will take eight years to complete, with one reactor being refurbished each year. The Paks plant provides over 40% of Hungary's total energy consumption, with MVM stating that the plant is the lowest cost energy generator in Hungary.
* In a blow to the Hungarian power sector, the Shah Deniz II consortium chose the Trans-Adriatic pipeline (TAP) over the Nabucco West pipeline in July 2013. FGSZ held a stake in the Nabucco project and was set to receive substantial transit fees. The selection of TAP will not only impact the government, which will lose out on any potential transit revenues, but also consumers in the long term, as the country is set to remain reliant on expensive Russian gas imports.
* The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid and the high costs are the main barriers to wind energy development in Hungary, according the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of Hungary's electricity demand.

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