India Petrochemicals Report Q2 2013 - New Market Research Report

The Indian petrochemicals industry will experience a surge in capacity in 2013, which will plug the deficits in the market that emerged over the past year as demand outstripped supply. Polyethylene will make the biggest gains, leading to a slashing of imports. However, the sector is weighed down by a poor business climate that is undermining progress in the investment necessary to put India on par with its main Asian competitor, China.

Indian plastics and synthetics rubber production have grown steadily over the last five years, while chemicals output growth has been slower. Both sectors registered a slowdown in growth in 2012, with the chemicals index rising by an average of 1.5%, which is more than the 0.7% forecast by BMI. Meanwhile, the plastics and rubber index rose 2.1% - well above the forecast 1.4%. Nevertheless, production indices pointed to a sharp downturn and growth that was well below the 9.5% average petrochemicals demand growth rate targeted by the government.

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However, there was upside in many polymer market segments in 2012/13 - with demand for polymers growing at a faster pace than output growth or the broader economy. Polyolefins demand in India has grown strongly and in spite of the slowdown in economic growth, there has been no slowdown in polymers consumption. Growth rates also benefited from poor demand conditions in the previous fiscal year. With output growth constrained by feedstock costs and lack of capacity growth in 2012, rising consumption led directly to a strong rise in imports.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* Indian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand is expected to increase by 13-14% in FY2012/13 - to around 2.25mn tonnes compared with just 3% growth in FY2011/12. Consumption is expected to rise by a further 10% in 2013/14, assisted by growth in construction activity and agriculture as well as lower PVC product prices. As there was no domestic capacity expansion in FY2012/13, PVC imports rose by around a third to 1mn tonnes. With Reliance Industries (RIL) bringing onstream a 100,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) PVC plant in Dahej, Gujarat, in 2013, and two other producers - DCW and Chemplast - planning expansions, growth will be met by local capacity in 2013/14.

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