Market Report, "South Africa Power Report Q1 2015", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Feb 09 2015

This quarter we have slightly revised our forecast to factor in some domestic supply from the Ibhubesi gas field in 2017 . That said, o ur fundamental assumptions remain relevant . Our negative outlook for South Africa's power sector is based on inefficient existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project commissioning and the precarious financial situation of Eskom . These factors show little sign of abating over the short-to-medium term - with wide-ranging implications for the country's economy and mining sector in particular . On a more positive note, we highlight that South Africa's power plant and transmission grid infrastructure will continue to offer investment opportunities over our forecast period and beyond thanks to a buoyant renewables industry, pressure on state utility Eskom to boost generation to avoid power shortages and South Africa's nascent nuclear expansion plans.

Full Report Details at

In 2014, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 245.37terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.42% increase on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 92.75% of this figure, and we expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of our forecast period, rising by an average of 2.74% to stand at 310.43TWh in 2023. Economic growth - we forecast real GDP of around 3.11% every year during our 10-year forecast period to 2023 - and demographics will both drive demand upwards.

Key Trends And Developments

* South Africa's power sector is in turmoil as supply shortages and rolling blackouts continue to plague the country. This is negatively affecting economic growth as industrial customers are encouraged to reduce their energy usage by state-owned utility Eskom. South Africa has suffered ongoing 'power emergencies' since the beginning of 2014, and warnings of load shedding have been mooted frequently. In fact, as recently as November 20 2014, Eskom announced that...

The South Africa Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Africa Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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