New Market Research Report: United Kingdom Power Report Q2 2015

An unpredictable shift to a multi-party political system following the 2015 general election w ill cloud UK energy policy and risks undermining investment in much-needed new power capacity. The successful completion of the UK's first capacity auction creates some upside to our forecasts over the long term, but fears of a capacity crunch will persist until this comes into effect in 2018/2019.

Political interference in the UK's power market remains one of the biggest threats to the outlook for domestic utilities - and we expect investment decisions to be further complicated by political posturing in the run up to the May 2015 general election. The outcome of the election remains too close to call as the UK undergoes a once-in-a-generation shift to a multi-party political system that will make coalition politics more common. This new era of coalition politics - and the unpredictability of the election result - makes deciphering the UK's future energy policy and establishing a long-term investment strategy increasingly difficult; it also risks deterring much-needed investment in new generation capacity.

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Uncertainty over energy policy will dominate our UK power sector coverage and is only likely to grow worse over the next two years. The results of an ongoing Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) probe into the UK's 'Big Six' energy companies, which could lead to the break-up of some vertically integrated utilities, is set to run until end-2015. In addition, the opposition Labour Party is preparing to intervene in the power market to drive down retail electricity prices and has promised a 20-month electricity price freeze should it win the election. A potential referendum on membership of the European Union in the event that the Conservatives remain in power could also stall investment in new power capacity through to 2017.

These factors will weigh on the share prices of UK utilities. We maintain that - from a purely utility-focused perspective -...

The United Kingdom Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.

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