New market study, "Gabon Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013", has been published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Nov 13 2013

The redevelopment of existing fields alongside the start of new fields will offer some upside to Gabon's upstream. However, we expect output to peak near the middle of the decade, limiting the extent of recent gains. While there is a promising level of activity offshore (and to smaller extend onshore) that could offer some support to production, without significant discoveries being developed we maintain our view that output is set to trend lower as volumes from mature fields decline. A delayed bidding round and Gabon's forced exit from the EITI highlight the challenges the country's business environment pose to further investment as the dispute over fields seized by the government continues.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

* While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the long-term trend for Gabon's oil production is for decline as production falls from mature fields and fails to be offset by new volumes. We expect output to average around 235,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013. While at present, we see more downside than upside risk to these figures, we note that a series of recent discoveries in Gabon's deepwater and increasingly in subsalt acreage underscore the untapped potential of the country despite its status a mature producer.
* The results from Total's Diamban-1B well, the country's firsts subsalt well, were promising, with the French international oil company reporting drilling intersected 49-55 metres (m) of net gas and condensate pay offshore. The find was important for Gabon, which has seen less success in deepwater drilling campaigns that its West Africa neighbours. Reports indicate Total, alongside partners Cobalt and Marathon, are targeting some 250-800mn barrels (bbl) of oil. While Total indicated the tests confirms the presence of a working hydrocarbons system, more liquids-rich discoveries will be necessary if subsalt finds are to be developed, given the limited commercial prospects for gas offshore Gabon.
* The result of the Diamban-1B probe underscore what is thought to be sizable untapped hydrocarbons potential in Gabon's deepwater and subsalt plays. Gabon is thought to be analogues to Brazil's Sergpe Alagoas and Reconcavo Basins. A number of international oil companies (IOCs) are planning further seismic and drilling campaigns offshore, which present upside risk our reserves and production forecasts over the longer term.
* However, we note that unlocking this latent potential will require greater clarity on in regards to the country's business environment, which has been damaged in recent years by corruption, perceived resources nationalism and strikes by the local workforce among other worrying trends.

Full Report Details at

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