Recent Study: Ukraine Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Oct 24 2013

Recent exploratory successes bode well for Ukraine despite its history of energy dependence. However, despite promising results, the country remains far from achieving independence. The large cost of gas imports associated to the supply monopoly of Russia is pushing officials to seek to maximise domestic production and diversify energy sources. New EIA estimates of technically recoverable shale gas confirm that Shell's move to enter Ukraine's unconventional plays in early 2013 could be a solution for the country. It remains that Ukraine will have to improve energy efficiency in order to reduce the detrimental impact of energy dependence on its economy.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Ukraine's oil and gas sector are:

* Successful completion of a 10-stage hydraulic fracturing (fracking) programme by JKX Oil and Gas and Schlumberger in Q3 surpassed predictions. The company is due to publish detailed performance results before the end fo the year. This outlines that there are still sources for upside potential in Ukraine although future production is unlikely to catch-up with consumption.
* The EIA released new estimates of global technically recoverable shale gas in mid-June 2013. Ukraine appears to be one of the main beneficiaries of this revaluation as the EIA now estimates that the country holds 3.6trn cubic metres (tcm) of unconventional resources.
* Ukraine is aiming to increase its natural gas production by as much as 25% over the next three years in order to wean itself off costly Russian imports. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said in November 2012 that the country's shale gas output could reach 20-30bn cubic metres (bcm) per year by 2020.
* Oil majors Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron were the winners of Ukraine's two shale gas fields, tendered in an auction that opened in February 2012, according to Reuters' Ukrainian government source. Shell has been awarded the Yuzivska field and Chevron the Olesska field. Shell has agreed on a US$10bn exploration and production (E&P) plan which could generate up to 20bcm annually from 2018 onward, according to the company.
* In August 2012, a consortium consisting of ExxonMobil, Shell, OMV Petrom and Nadra Ukrainy was awarded a 50-year production sharing contract (PSC) for the deep-water Skifska field, with an estimated 200-250bcm of gas-in-place, in the Black Sea. The group will be expected to begin work on the field before the end of 2012.
* BMI estimates that gas demand will rise from an estimated 66.2bcm in 2012 to 73.1bcm by 2016, climbing above 80bcm by 2020. Production could see a gradual rise from an estimated 20.1bcm in 2012 to 21.7bcm in 2016 as current exploration successes are slowly developed over the period. This will further rise to 26.8bcm by 2021 on the back of the beginning of shale gas output. Growing consumption means that the import requirement is still set to rise, from 46.1bcm in 2012 to 55.9bcm by 2021.

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