"Philippines Power Report Q1 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research

The Philippines had a brutal reminder of its vulnerability to natural disasters in November 2013, when Typhoon Haiyan hit the country. Responsible for at least 10,000 deaths and affecting the lives of nearly 10% of the country's population, the storm destroyed power transmission and distribution networks on the islands of Samar and Leyte, leaving residents cut off from the grid. While the Philippines had other power priorities prior to the storm, it now has to repair the damage that Haiyan has left behind before it can address those. Elsewhere, the quarter has seen a number of new power projects announced, including thermal and renewable energy investments. And while the introduction Retail Competition and Open Access - which came into force in mid-2013 - was widely expected to help raise competition among utilities and lower prices, Manila's Meralco has gone against the tide, announcing electricity rate increases in November 2013.

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We forecast electricity generation in the Philippines to grow by 3.8% in 2013, to reach 73.0 terawatt hours (TWh). Electricity generated by gas-fired power stations will be responsible for the majority of this growth, and natural gas will outperform the market as a whole, climbing by 5.5% over 2013. Oil-fired power stations will see their contribution to electricity generation decline slightly, by just under 0.1% in 2013. We forecast hydroelectric power to represent 13.4% of total electricity generation, although a lack of rain has been affecting electricity production.

We have lowered our short-term forecasts this quarter, in light of the impact of typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. As such, we now forecast that between 2013 and 2022, growth in electricity generation to average 3.9% per annum, underpinned by a similar annual average increase in electricity consumption (4.2%). We highlight that the country's power situation will remain tenuous for the foreseeable future, but if a guaranteed supply was put into question a few months ago because of a gap between increases in consumption and the pace at which new capacity came one line, this issue is now overshadowed by other concerns. The typhoon destroyed power infrastructure, particularly in the province of Leyte, and this needs reconstructing.

Key trends and developments in the Philippines' electricity market:

* Typhoon Haiyan caused havoc in the Philippines in November 2013. The latest situational report from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management body estimates that 9.6mn people were affected by the supertyphoon, with damage reported across 41 provinces. Leyte and Samar islands were totally cut off from the electricity grid, with the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines estimating it could take up to six weeks to restore the connection.

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