Ireland Food & Drink Report Q4 2013 - New Report Available

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Nov 07 2013

We believe the Irish economy will gain momentum in H213 after several quarters of anaemic growth. A relative improvement in the eurozone will pave the way for net exports to recover, while modestly improving domestic demand will ensure that private consumption picks up. Although this has positive implications for consumer spending on food and drink, we stress that domestic demand will remain well below potential for some time to come, with the severity of the country's economic downturn likely to ensure that average disposable incomes remain well below pre-crisis levels for the next few years.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2013 per capita food consumption +0.5%; five-year forecast to 2017 +5.6%
* 2013 alcoholic drink sales +1.5%; forecast to 2017 +10.5%
* 2013 soft drink sales +1.6%; forecast to 2017 +12.3%
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales +3.8%; forecast to 2017 +21.2%

Full Report Details at

Key Industry Trends & Developments

Food And Drink Exports Lift Irish Economy: It was announced in September 2013 that Ireland has been lifted out of recession thanks in large part to impressive export growth fuelled in part by food and beverage trade. Food and drink exports increased by 8.6% in the first half of 2013 following a successful 2012, when total food and drink exports topped EUR9bn for the first time.

Musgrave Axes Superquinn In Ireland: In August 2013 Irish retailer Musgrave announced plans to rebrand the portfolio of Superquinn stores under the larger SuperValu banner from February 2014, bringing to an end the well known Superquinn name in Ireland. As a result of the rebranding, 102 Superquinn support office staff will lose their jobs, although 2,500 store staff will be unaffected by the move.

Key Risks To Outlook

The main risk to our forecast for Irish real GDP growth is a slower-than-expected economic recovery in the EU. With Irish GDP growth heavily dependent on exports to the region, an extended downturn in the EU would undoubtedly weigh on Ireland's growth trajectory over the next few quarters. In such a scenario, we would look to revise our real GDP forecasts for the country in 2013 and 2014, although we stress that negative real GDP growth in 2013 remains an unlikely probability at this stage.

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