Market Report, "Egypt Agribusiness Report Q4 2014", published

Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, meaning that the recent sell-off in grain prices will benefit the country, though low prices will be limited by Egypt's weak pound and low foreign reserves. The country is in the process of reforming its food subsidy programme, in an effort to make the process more efficient. The sugar industry is benefiting from a tight local ma rket and higher domestic prices, and we believe the livestock and dairy industries will continue to recove r strongly from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, especially in a context of lower grain prices.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/872592_egypt_agribusiness_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=303

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 9.4% to 9.3mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 5.6% to 3.0mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.
* Beef & veal production growth to 2017/18: 33.4% to 380,100 tonnes. The recovery of herds - linked to imports of live cattle, systematic vaccination of cattle and lower feed prices - will help production recover over the medium term.
* Real GDP growth: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (flat at 2.2% y-o-y in 2013).
* Consumer inflation: average 10.5% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 9.4% y-o-y in 2013).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.9% y-o-y decrease to USD27.5bn in 2013/14; forecast to increase on average 3.4% annually between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

Industry Outlook

With the wheat and corn harvests completed in Egypt, we maintain our estimates for wheat output to reach 8.7mn tonnes in 2013/14 and corn output to come in at 5.8mn tonnes. Despite ongoing tensions in the Black Sea, Egypt will import almost the entirety of its wheat requirements from the Black Sea region as trade has as yet been unaffected. For...

The Egypt Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

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