Market Report, "Ghana Agribusiness Report Q4 2013", published

We continue to expect flat production from Ghana's cocoa sector, a function of potential harvest delays on the back of dry weather. Over the long term, we forecast relatively pedestrian growth in cocoa production owing to reduced farm revenues and structural concerns in the sector, particularly labour. We are forecasting mild production growth for Ghanaian corn in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season. Over the long term, we believe the country will largely maintain a balanced market. For livestock, we continue to expect Ghana to be a growing net importer of poultry over the long term due to strong demand growth.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/648332_ghana_agribusiness_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=303

Key Forecasts

* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 10.5% to 950,000 tonnes. This is a downgrade from our previous growth forecast owing to aging trees and the expectation that low prices will reduce farm revenues.
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 9.3% (up from 6.6% in 2012; predicted to average 8.0% from 2013 to 2017).
* 2013 central bank policy rate: 15.50% end-2013 (down from 16% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price inflation (average): 11.4% (up from 10.8% in 2012).

Industry Developments

In late January 2013, a delegation from Nutreco travelled to Ghana to explore the establishment of feed production facilities. The company, which employs more than 10,000 people and is the largest producer of fresh poultry in Spain, has said it is interested in expanding operations into Africa, Asia and America. The company already has a presence in Africa, with feed production facilities in Egypt. The Ghanaian government is particularly interested in increasing foreign involvement in the country's poultry sector, as the cost of high-quality feed is one of the key constraints in production. The sector also faces cheap competition from imports, which as of late 2012 the Ghanaian government has refused to ban in order to keep domestic prices down.

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