New Market Report Now Available: Pakistan Food & Drink Report Q3 2013

Our near-term domestic demand outlook for Pakistan is looking bright, as declining costs of credit and disinflationary pressure are likely to prove supportive of domestic demand, as is the expanding economy. Indeed, the Pakistani economy appears to be on track to record its highest annual real GDP growth rate since FY2006/07 (July-June). However, faster development of the food and drink market will remain precluded by the lacking modern organised retailing network, as foreign direct investment in this area remains muted.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency):

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* 2013 food consumption year-on-year (y-o-y) growth = +11.55%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +9.79%.
* 2013 soft drinks sales y-o-y growth = +11.16%; CAGR to 2017 = +11.50%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks sales y-o-y growth = +12.01%; CAGR to 2017 = +13.16%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales y-o-y growth = +13.93%; CAGR to 2017 = +14.74%.

Key Company Trends

Turkish Companies Taking Interest in Pakistan: In early 2013, Turkish producer Aytac Food visited the Punjab Board of Investment and Trade (PBIT), with a view to making investments in Pakistan's dairy, livestock and halal food sectors. Domestic capacities for the production of processed dairy and meat products are currently limited and insufficient to meet local demand, which is one of the areas clearly targeted by Aytac Food. The Turkish company is active in the confectionery, meat processing, beverage, convenience foods and dairy sectors.

Multinationals Invest in Greenfield Project in Pakistan: Targeting the country's longer-term consumer potential, in March 2013 The Coca-Cola Company's greenfield project at the Industrial Estate Multan, in the Punjab area of Pakistan, officially commenced. The site, which will be engaged in the manufacture of bottled water and fruit juices, will include modern production and storage equipment and facilities. Similarly, in the same month Nestle Pakistan completed a new factory in Sheikupura, the latest in a succession of expansion projects in the country that have totalled more than US$148mn over the last two years. The new facility has been built to meet increasing consumer demand for Nestle's dairy, juice and bottled water products, signalling continuing confidence in Pakistan as an important growth market.

Key Risks To Forecasts

Elevated Security Risks: Pakistan is at risk of experiencing years of instability and militant activity, but an outright collapse of the state is unlikely - unless the core province of Punjab becomes ungovernable. Under such circumstances, we would not preclude a military coup. Meanwhile, due to its strategic importance, Pakistan's foreign allies will do everything they can to ensure its stability.

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