New Market Report Now Available: Thailand Agribusiness Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Aug 28 2013

Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector benefits from strong export opportunities and government support as well as an efficient foodproducing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors are especially promising; however, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thailand's production relative to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thailand's food-producing efficiency and in boosting the country's export competitiveness. Thailand will remain a key rice exporter but may lose out to secondary exporters owing to growing instability in its trade policy.

Full Report Details at

Key Forecasts

* Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 19.4% to 1.85mn tonnes. This growth will largely be due to increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncooked imports in April 2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products and give the industry more impetus to expand production.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 26.8% to 3.2mn tonnes. Thailand's sugar consumption is growing fast, boosted by consumption patterns and the rising demand for carbonated soft drinks and confectionery sales.
* Rice production growth to 2016/17: 8.4% to 22.2mn tonnes. This in line with the government's forecast for rice production to reach 21mn tonnes by 2014/15. Expansion will come almost entirely from improved yields, as the area of land under rice cultivation will remain stable.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 22.5mn in 2013 (growth to average 1.2% annually between 2013 and 2017017).
* Real GDP growth in 2013: 4.0% chg y-o-y (down from 6.4% in 2012, forecast to average 4.2% between 2013 and 2017).
* Consumer price index in 2013: 2.9% average (down from 3.0% in 2012; forecast to average 2.6% between 2013 and 2017).
* Central bank policy rate in 2013: 2.50% eop (down from 2.75% in 2012; forecast to average 2.65% between 2013 and 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

* Sugar 2012/13 production forecast revised up, to 9.9mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 9.4mn tonnes). Despite an increase in sugar cane area harvested to 1.3mn hectares, up 4.7% y-o-y, driven by the ongoing growth of the numbers of mills in Thailand, sugar output declined on the back of lower yields.

Key Developments

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