New Market Report: Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Nov 25 2013

The victory of Nicolas Maduro of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela in April will most probably ensure the continuity of many of the interventionist policies of Chavez's era. Price fixing in particular continues to be a source of woe for producers unable to meet input costs which are soaring in line with some of the highest rates of inflation in the world. Some respite has arrived in the form of a 20% rise in the government-fixed price of food items including beef, chicken and dairy products, but even this will fall short of the rate of inflation which is expected to increase 30% year-on-year in 2013. Inflation is also contributing to the diminishing purchasing power of Venezuelan households while foreign currency shortages after a pre-election spending boom are causing shortages of some imported goods.

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Key Forecasts

* Corn consumption growth to 2017: 8.2% to 4.16mn tonnes. Consumers hit by economic turmoil will turn to the cheapest staple food, more than compensating for reduced demand from the livestock sector.
* Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 34.3% to 940,000 60kg bags. The hike in government prices and increased investment in small farms will see some recovery in supply.
* Beef production growth to 2017: down 1.9% to 358,000 tonnes. High input costs, cheaper Mercosur competitors and reduced domestic demand will stymie growth.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$4.24bn in 2013 (down 7.6% from US$4.59bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 0.7% on average from 2013 to 2017).
* 2013 real GDP growth: 2.0% (down from 5.6% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 2.7% on average between 2013 and 2017).
* 2013 consumer price index: 33.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 21.3% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 24.0% on average between 2013 and 2017).
* 2013 lending rate: 15.2% (down from 15.3% in 2012; forecast to average to 16.6% between 2013 and 2017).

Industry Developments

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