New Market Study Published: Australia Food & Drink Report Q3 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jun 12 2013

We do not believe the Australian government's efforts to lift the economy will be sufficient to compensate for the dire state of the job market and highly leveraged households. As a result, we expect growth in private consumption to slow from an estimated 3.0% in 2012 to 1.2% in 2013, close to the lows recorded in 2009. This is likely to leave our food and drink sales growth forecasts relatively subdued in the medium term. Even if economic conditions take a turn for the better, the shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia is likely to remain firmly entrenched over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.

Full Report Details at

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2013 per capita food consumption = +1.2%; forecast to 2017 = +6.5%.
* 2013 soft drinks sales = +1.6%; forecast to 2017 = +12.1%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.5%; forecast to 2017 = +11.2%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.6%; forecast to 2017 = +21.1%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Beef Export Opportunities For Australia In Emerging Markets: Beef and veal production will be strong in 2012/13, benefiting from two years of herd rebuilding, and will reach a record high of 2.2mn tonnes, up 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). Cattle slaughtered are estimated to reach 8.2mn heads, up 3.6% y-o-y. That said, herd rebuilding is expected to slow in 2012/13 on the back of hot and dry weather, which will hamper 2013/14 output growth.

Australians Drinking Less Soft Drinks, Fruit Juices: According to a study from Australia-based Roy Morgan Research, consumption of soft drinks and fruit juice in Australia declined between 2008 and 2012, reports Australian Food News. The data indicates that in 2008, the average percentage of Australians aged 14 and older consuming soft drinks and fruit juices during a one week period stood at 61% and 41% respectively.

Risks To Outlook

A slowdown in China presents risks to Australian export growth, given that on average 27% of total exports are bought by the Chinese. If we include exports to other countries that also have huge exposure to China, the figure rises to 47%, up from just 32% in 2000. With a large proportion of Australian exports reliant on continued growth in the Chinese infrastructure, export growth is likely to continue to fall. Indeed, the external environment continues to weaken, with the slowdown in the Chinese economy threatening to blow out hopes of greater export demand.

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