Turkey Agribusiness Report Q4 2014 - New Report Available

We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the country's confectionery industry, and our belief that large changes to the country's sugar production quotas will occur in the coming years. We see upside potential in the livestock sector, as the government's supply of discounted credit has aided growth in recent years. However, we see little growth potential for the grain, dairy and rice sectors, as we believe the country's production growth in these segments will be hampered by high domestic production and input costs. In line with these views, we believe domestic confectionery companies will outperform, as they will benefit from growing domestic sugar production capacity as well as a strong consumer story. We highlight domestic confectionary company Ülker as an example of this dynamic.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 16.9% to 18.1mn tonnes. We expect the country to remain a large importer over the medium term. The country is likely to switch plantings towards corn and soybean, as these crops face more restrictive import policies as part of the country's biotech laws.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8.5% to 2.5mn tonnes. This will be in line with strong growth in the confectionery industry as a whole as well as a positive consumer outlook.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 2.4%, down from 4.0% in 2013.
* Consumer price inflation: 8.4% average in 2014, up from 7.5% average in 2013.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD66.6bn in 2013/14, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.3% between 2013/14 and 2017/18.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/861910_turkey_agribusiness_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=303

Key Developments

We have revised down our outlook for 2014/15 wheat production in Turkey as a result of drought in recent months. We expect output to fall by 16.7% y-o-y to 15.0mn tonnes, as the lack of rainfall will seriously impact yields. Corn...

The Turkey Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Turkey Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

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