"Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research

Overall, the long-term outlook for the Mexican agriculture sector looks less optimistic than previous years. Consumer demand growth is largely slowing, particularly in key areas like sugar and corn , where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, pa rticularly in the sugar, grains and livestock sector. Although we forecast a rebound in production for key sectors like corn and meat, we have a largely subdued long-term production outlook for these sectors, as cheap US imports, lower prices, and distortions due to government intervention reduce production incentives. We see the strongest growth potential in the poultry and coffee sectors, as Mexico remains a key coffee exporter and poultry consumption looks to show the strongest growth. However, even our coffee production forecasts have been downgraded due to disease concerns.

Key Forecasts

* Corn production growth to 2017/18: 11% to 24.5mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years, and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.

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* Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8% to 4.9mn tonnes. We believe sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates.

* Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 35% to 5.0mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help boost production. However, growth is largely due to base effects.

* 2014 real GDP growth: 3.3% (up from 1.1% in 2013; predicted to average 3.7% to 2018).

* Consumer price inflation (average): 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (compared with 3.8% in 2013).

Industry Trends And Developments...

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

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