"Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2014" is now available at Fast Market Research

Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector benefits from strong export opportunities and government support as well as an efficient food-producing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors are especially promising; however, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thailand's production relative to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buy-back programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thailand's food-producing efficiency and in boosting the country's export competitiveness. Thailand will remain a key rice exporter but may lose out to secondary exporters owing to growing instability in its trade policy.

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Key Forecasts

* Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 19.4% to 1.85mn tonnes. This growth will largely be due to increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncooked imports in April 2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products into the bloc, giving the industry more impetus to expand production.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 26.8% to 3.2mn tonnes. Thailand's sugar consumption is growing fast, boosted by consumption patterns and the rising demand for carbonated soft drinks and confectionery.
* Rice production growth to 2016/17: 8.4% to 22.2mn tonnes. This in line with the government's forecast for rice production to reach 21mn tonnes by 2014/15. Expansion will come almost entirely from improved yields, as the area of land under rice cultivation will remain stable.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 22.8mn in 2014 (growth to average 1.0% annually to between 2013 and 2017).
* Real GDP growth in 2014: 4.5% year-on-year (up from 4.0% in 2013, forecast to average 4.3% between 2013 and 2017).
* Consumer price inflation in 2014: 2.6% average (down from 2.9% in 2013; forecast to average 2.6% between 2013 and 2017).
* Central Bank policy rate in 2014: 2.50% end of period (same than in 2013; forecast to average 2.65% between 2013 and 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

* We have revised our pork and beef production and consumption forecasts owing to a change in data source. We now follow Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/OECD estimates. For pork, we now expect production to grow by 5.7% out to 2016/17, reaching 988,100 tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 845,000 tonnes). Beef output will expand to 415,900 tonnes in 2016/17, up 8.8% on 2011/12 (and compared with a previous forecast of 225,000 tonnes).

Key Developments

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