Egypt Defence & Security Report Q3 2013 - New Study Released

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jun 12 2013

* A democratically elected leader seeking to make Egypt a regional powerhouse and a player on the international stage could indicate stability and increased regional security, or the ruling potentate's links with the Muslim Brotherhood, together with recent revelations of his anti-Semitic tendencies, could spell trouble, particularly for the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and Egypt's close ties with the US.
* Moreover, there are rumblings of discontent amongst the Egyptian populace. Elected with only 51%, Morsi's victory was by no means a landslide, and many are not happy with his rule, his re-writing of the Constitution, and his appropriation of more power than even former President Mubarak had. A series of recent high-profile accidents, including a train crash and a building's collapse, together with the uncertain state of the Egyptian economy, have fostered discontent particularly as many seem to feel Morsi is not addressing the country's key problems.
* Domestically, the Egyptian military is now focused on the threat of jihadi terrorists in the Sinai, following an attack there which left 16 soldiers dead and led to the sacking of military chief Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and other senior commanders. Moreover, Egypt's involvement in a number of UN peacekeeping missions, including in Sudan, potentially put them at the risk of retaliatory terrorist attacks.
* The court's decision to accept the appeal to retry Mubarak could have far-reaching consequences, however in the near term there were celebrations in the streets as many applauded the decision to impose more stringent punishments on the former president and his cohorts.
* Regionally, Morsi is repositioning Egypt in a leadership role that could see it play a prominent part in Syria and Iran especially. However, in the future this could bring Egypt into contention with Saudi Arabia as both struggle to become the region's leader. Moreover, tensions have risen since the recent trial and sentencing of an Egyptian human rights lawyer in Saudi Arabia
* Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: * Provided an update regarding recent purchase of materiel by the armed forces, notably new tactical transport aircraft by the air force. * Details regarding efforts by the Egyptian authorities to reduce incidences of weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip from the Sinai.

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