New Market Report: China Defence & Security Report Q4 2014

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Oct 24 2014

Like many aspects of its defence posture, China keeps its annual defence budget secret, nevertheless, it is possible to make an accurate estimate regarding what the country spends annually on defence. To this end, we expect China's defence budget to reach USD132bn in 2014. By 2018, we expect China's defence budget to reach USD187bn.

We have given China an overall security risk rating of 74 for Q414. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk rating at the same level for the period January 2009 until Q414. We believe China faces a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, it faces a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack, although its susceptibility to criminal activity remains high.

China's occasionally tempestuous relationship with India was tested once again in mid-August 2014 when Chinese troops entered territory claimed by India. The move follows similar incursions which occurred in 2013 and, once again, took place in an unpopulated area close to the northern Indian city of Ladakh.

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Much as relations with India have been strained during Q314, China's difficult relationship with Taiwan has once again been tested, via a series of cyber attacks which Taipei has blamed on Beijing. Additionally, Taiwan scrambled two fighter aircraft to intercept two Chinese surveillance aircraft which had entered the country's air defence zone in late August 2014.

Throughout Q314, Japan's plans to redraft the 'Article 9' of its constitution which bars the country from deploying military forces abroad has raised China's ire. Beijing has been harshly critical of a move which it sees as returning Japan to an era of militarism. Meanwhile, reports in mid-July 2014 spoke of China constructing an airstrip on the Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea; the latest in a series of moves which China has undertaken to demonstrate its control over an area of ocean which it considers its own.

Chinese relations with the United States continue...

The China Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's China Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Chinese defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on China to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Chinese defence and security market.

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