New Market Report: South Africa Defence & Security Report Q3 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jul 29 2013

Executive Summary

The deaths of 34 miners at the Marikana platinum mine northwest of Johannesburg in August 2012 during a protest over pay highlighted the risk to South African stability posed by such socio-economic issues as income inequality, not to mention the ability of the security services to deal proportionately with mass unrest. For the time being, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) appears capable of keeping a lid on these national tensions. However, this cannot be taken for granted in the long term.

Socio-economic priorities mean that the government is unlikely to deliver large funding increases to the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). The government has already revealed defence spending plans for the next three years which envisage some growth in the defence budget. However, these increases are not nearly enough to enable the SANDF to meet its procurement and personnel targets, analysts are warning.

The government's Defence Review, delivered in April 2012 and currently subject to parliamentary consultation, presents a timely opportunity for South Africa to think seriously about its defence posture. Essentially, it either needs to properly fund the ambitious regional involvements that the government has currently committed the SANDF to, or, it needs to scale back the military's commitments so that they match existing funding levels. The drain on skilled personnel within the SANDF has also been identified as a mounting crisis.

Full Report Details at

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* Updated South Africa's domestic, regional and international threat posture.
* Provided full details regarding the threat posed to South Africa's military posture by the country's high HIV/AIDS infection levels.
* Added details regarding the expected size of South Africa's defence budget over the forthcoming three years.

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