"Iraq Defence & Security Report Q4 2014" Published

We expect Iraq to spend up to USD21bn on defence in 2014. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect Iraq to spend an average of USD33.9bn on defence annually. By 2018, we expect the country's defence budget to have reached USD42.9bn.

We have given Iraq and overall security risk rating of 42 for Q414. On average, the country scores an overall security risk rating of 49 for the period December 2007 until Q414. We believe Iraq to have a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Nevertheless, the country continues to suffer high incidences of terrorist attack and also criminal activity.

From January 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS); an Islamist insurgent organisation which has a strong presence in Iraq and in Syria, and has began to capture significant quantities of Iraqi territory which remain under its control. As of July 2014 a swathe of territory stretching from the Iraq-Syria border stretching southeast towards Baghdad and northeast towards the borders of Kurdish-controlled Iraq remains under its control. Iraq is, for all intents and purposes, now experiencing a major civil war.

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By June 2014, ISIS has taken control of the cities Mosul and Fallujah, along with most of the surrounding Nineveh Province in the north of Iraq. Other areas to fall under ISIS control included the city of Tikrit north of Baghdad. Attempts were made in early June 2014 to capture the city of Samarra but these were repulsed by the Iraqi armed forces. By mid-2015, the city of Tal Afar in the far north of Iraq had fallen under ISIS control. On 22 June 2014, these gains were followed up by ISIS' capture of two strategic border crossings into Syria allowing the uninterrupted flow of materiel and troops between the two countries. By the end of the month, the movement's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as Caliph and had declared areas under ISIS control to constitute a new Caliphate, with the movement changing its name...

The Iraq Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iraq Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iraqi defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iraqi defence and security market.

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