Market Report, "Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013", published

We expect interest in Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical market to increase over the coming decades, both from the point of view of imports and local involvement in drug manufacturing. The government is increasingly aiming to attract foreign players through tax and other incentives, which are already resulting in a rising number of joint ventures. However, we caution that Uzbekistan will remain a risky market, due to factors such as state bias in favour of local companies, especially given its high stakes in various enterprises, corruption and deficient intellectual property rights (IPRs) enforcement. Moreover, the recent changes in relation to foreign currency purchase and the increased administrative burden on all imports entering the country bode ominously for the performance of its pharmaceutical market - as well as the wider economy - over the course of 2013. Generally speaking, while improvements in the operating environment will come, we view this as a longer-term scenario, with improvements hampered by backward steps, as evidenced by the latest import regulation changes.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640326_uzbekistan_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q3.aspx?afid=303

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: UZS989.11bn (US$560mn) in 2012 to UZS933.93bn (US$504mn) in 2013; - 5.6% in local currency terms and +-10.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast reduced significantly in relation to previous quarter, due to analyst intervention, taking into account import ban.
* Healthcare: UZS5,582bn (US$3.16bn) in 2012 to UZS6,810bn (US$3.67bn) in 2013; +22.0% in local currency terms and +16.0% in US dollar terms. This forecast is somewhat lower in relation to previous quarter, owing to analyst intervention on account of pharmaceutical spending.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Following the adjustment of our proprietary rating tool Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR)s, Uzbekistan remains viewed as the least attractive market in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, which covers 20 key markets. Uzbekistan scores below the regional average for all indicators in the proprietary ranking system, and this situation is unlikely to improve in the medium term, with pharmaceutical players facing considerable challenges in growing their local sales.

Key Trends And Developments

* In March 2013, South Korea Hanmi Pharmaceutical obtained marketing authorisations for hypertensive Amosartan (amlodipine+losartan) in three Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, namely Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Hanmi has also agreed with Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD), with the latter to market and supply the former's combination drug to over 51 countries, branded as Cozaar XQ.

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