Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2013 - New Market Report

Despite the authorities' focus on expanding healthcare insurance and coverage, risks to such programmes continue to be posed by medical staff shortages as well as by poor allocation of existing capital. Inefficient allocation of resources and funds in government healthcare policy will likely affect projects such as devising a public healthcare insurance-payment scheme through employer and employee contributions, tailoring healthcare services to the epidemiological profile and managing medical staff retention rates. Nevertheless, Morocco will continue to be of interest to multinationals, given its relative economic and political stability and a largely predictable risk profile, in addition to an established pharmaceutical manufacturing base.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: MAD11.21bn (US$1.30bn) in 2012 to MAD12.33bn (US$1.47bn) in 2013; +10.0% in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower in relation to Q313 on account of slight downward revision of historical figures.
* Healthcare: MAD53.76bn (US$6.22bn) in 2012 to MAD59.24bn (US$7.06bn) in 2013; +10.2% in local currency terms and +13.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q313.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q413 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) regional table, Morocco ranks tenth of the 30 key markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The country's risk profile is seen as more favourable than the regional average, as is its rewards profile. However, low per capitadrug consumption, especially in rural areas, will continue to weigh down on its overall score.

Key Trends And Developments

* In July 2013, Moroccan Health Minister El Hossein El Ouardi admitted that the healthcare sector suffers from a severe shortage of medical professionals. There are currently 19,770 doctors and 29,025 nurses practising in the public and private sectors - well short of the country's growing needs, according to North African news portal Magharebia. Secretary-general of the Independent Union of Doctors Abdelmalek Lahnaoui highlighted a need for the balanced management of healthcare staff, given the difficulty of tackling human resource shortages. The quoted figures see less than one doctor and one nurse for every 1,000 people, comparing poorly against Egypt's two doctors and two nurses.

BMI Economic View: Headline growth for the Moroccan economy will stay robust over the second half of 2013, on the back of a continuing rebound in agricultural activity. That said, the near-term prospects for non-agricultural GDP growth remain poor, characterised by weak domestic demand, tight credit conditions, and a disappointing investment outlook. We forecast real GDP growth to reach 4.1% this year, before declining to 3.0% in 2014.

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