Recent Study: Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2013

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Sep 23 2013

While the implementation of cost-containment policies targeting the pharmaceutical industry in Italy may work to prevent the healthcare expenditure budget from overshooting, in the long term such policies may lower incentives for structural reform of the health care sector. This is because in theory they do not guarantee the efficient provision and management of healthcare services. The Italian public sector operates through regional autonomous communities, resulting in a decentralised approach to drug procurement and healthcare provision.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: EUR21.99bn (US$27.93bn) in 2012 to EUR20.93bn (US$27.83bn) in 2013; -4.8% in local currency terms and -11.8% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR152.02bn (US$193.07bn) in 2012 to EUR154.19bn (US$205.08bn) in 2013; +1.4% growth in local currency terms and +6.2% in US dollar terms.

Full Report Details at

Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Italy is 12th out of the 13 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely because of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.

Key Trends And Developments

* In July 2013, Recordati posted H113 revenues of EUR477.7mn, up by 13.8% in comparison with the same period of the preceding year. Its international sales grow by 17.1%.
* Doctors went on strike across Italy in late July 2013 to protest against cuts to the country's health service, as Prime Minister Enrico Letta's government seeks further ways to slash spending. Massimo Cozza, head of the medics' arm of Italy's biggest trade union CGIL said: 'We want to defend a public service that is more and more impoverished and that is no longer able to guarantee proper care for the people'. He added that Italy's public health service had reached 'the limits of survival'.

BMI Economic View: Despite signals that the worst is over in Italy, we nonetheless expect the economy to remain in recession throughout 2013, forecasting a 1.5% contraction of real GDP. Our forecast for 0.1% and 0.7% growth in 2014 and 2015 respectively reflect our view that a lack of structural reforms will limit competitiveness and productivity gains, capping potential export growth in coming years.

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