"Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

We calculate that the Thai pharmaceutical market will post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% in local currency terms, or of 7.0% in US dollars, to reach THB178.54bn (US $6.10bn) in 2017. Key drivers of growth will be volume-based, as the government continues to prioritise the use of generic medicines. Nevertheless, regional harmonisation initiatives - in addition to ongoing trade negotiations - are expected to gradually remove some of the market access barriers for novel products, though their uptake will remain dependent on the availability of private funding.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: THB135.38bn (US$4.36bn) in 2012 to THB142.52bn (US$4.64bn) in 2013; +5.3% in local currency terms and +6.5% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged in relation to previous quarter's projection.
* Healthcare: THB450.92bn (US$14.51bn) in 2012 to THB489.51bn (US$15.95bn) in 2013; +8.6% in local currency terms and +9.9% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged in relation to previous quarter's projection.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/723509_thailand_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_report_q1.aspx?afid=303

Risk/Reward Rating: Thailand remains ranked broadly in the middle of the Pharmaceutical RRR table assessing the attractiveness of the 18 countries in the Asia Pacific region. While Thailand's score for its Industry Rewards variable is above the regional average, indicating the country's favourable longer-term standing in terms of its pharmaceutical market development, operating risks - including the lacking intellectual property (IP) environment - remain elevated.

Key Trends and Developments

* In September 2013, Thailand-based Mega Lifesciences revealed its strategy to cash in on regional liberalisation through the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which is due to come into effect in 2015, according to The Nation. In the same month, Mega Lifesciences acquired Vietnamese Hau Giang Pharmaceutical's Eugica cough medicine brand, which will also support its regional expansion strategy.

BMI Economic View: The recent floods across more than 20 provinces in Thailand are presenting significant downside risks to the country's economic outlook, which we already assess as being below consensus. At a minimum, we expect the floods to result in logistical bottlenecks and we are likely to see a slowdown in industrial production over the coming months.

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